Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.552493 13.515114 15.666438 18.193771 21.075364 24.252175 28.013088
2024-10-20 8.296115 10.898571 14.044441 18.099871 23.158915 29.229095 37.027487
2024-10-27 6.293942 9.150594 12.907760 18.146071 25.184204 34.227149 46.622895
2024-11-03 5.358764 8.490752 12.911885 19.486423 28.865723 41.589844 59.939471
2024-11-10 4.549535 7.793732 12.673348 20.355007 31.900547 48.311086 73.016985
2024-11-17 3.899810 7.178168 12.402652 21.058897 34.684635 54.858736 86.383481
2024-11-24 3.210810 6.343690 11.626289 20.821097 35.945351 59.215077 96.862457
2024-12-01 2.576201 5.462439 10.608213 20.005897 36.132929 61.871036 104.901516
2024-12-08 2.099593 4.765373 9.777735 19.355883 36.454352 64.680339 113.308754
2024-12-15 1.813650 4.377720 9.434205 19.492301 38.079897 69.678303 125.545644
2024-12-22 1.527279 3.925959 8.890358 19.170646 38.833059 73.239015 135.631412
2024-12-29 1.412127 3.824220 9.018423 20.132425 41.986721 81.123369 153.540047
2025-01-05 1.238640 3.560994 8.792710 20.407366 43.964244 87.246985 169.137026
2025-01-12 1.079148 3.297109 8.526319 20.570972 45.760593 93.226542 185.005495
2025-01-19 0.942146 3.057722 8.273881 20.727294 47.554432 99.344645 201.583077
2025-01-26 0.905939 3.082616 8.639332 22.277490 52.329441 111.422293 229.920565
2025-02-02 0.840294 3.008583 8.753395 23.272376 56.037184 121.718082 255.599616
2025-02-09 0.771290 2.907595 8.782886 24.071575 59.397385 131.568513 281.057732
2025-02-16 0.664056 2.659006 8.388334 23.806544 60.405133 136.805140 297.948913
2025-02-23 0.548260 2.347271 7.765540 22.889478 59.849558 138.807866 308.601100
2025-03-02 0.457366 2.091687 7.247786 22.157429 59.624499 141.447071 320.655446
2025-03-09 0.406165 1.964952 7.079186 22.311316 61.485812 148.606007 342.314766
2025-03-16 0.348018 1.791920 6.737438 21.948843 62.062569 153.032559 358.593322